September to December period constitutes the second major rainfall season in Uganda. During the 47th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF47) for the Greater Horn of Africa that was held at Zanzibar Beach Resort in Zanzibar, Republic of Tanzania from 21st – 22nd August 2017, the national, regional and international climate scientists reviewed the current state of the global climate systems and their implications on the seasonal rainfall over the Greater Horn of Africa.
It was observed that the major physical conditions that are likely to influence the evolution of weather conditions over Uganda and the rest of the region for the forecast period of September to December 2017 will include:
- The predicted neutral phase of Indian Ocean Dipole and neutral ENSO conditions in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (No El Niño and no La Niña);
- The influence of regional circulation patterns, topographical features, and large inland water bodies.
Based on the above considerations as well as details of the climatology of Uganda and scientific tools for climate analysis, Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) has downscaled the regional forecast and come up with the following detailed forecast:
- Overall, there is an increased likelihood of above normal (above average) rainfall over much of Uganda, while near normal (average) rainfall over south western Uganda and near normal to below normal rainfall conditions over Karamoja regions.
The seasonal forecast issued for September to December 2017 across regions of Uganda is detailed in September to December 2017 Seasonal Rainfall Update.